To go, or not to go.
That has been the question through Lane Kiffin’s first season at LSU.
The characteristically aggressive coach has been known to go for it on fourth down, which produced thrilling returns in a Week 4 contest against Texas A&M when Jackson Harris was taking a fourth-and-1 pass 57 yards to the end zone.
At Kentucky, Kiffin’s analytics-based choice to punt on a fourth-and-1 — which could have ended the game with a conversion — resulted in a less happy outcome when the Wildcats drove the field to tie the game in regulation and won in overtime.
A season-long conversation about Kiffin and fourth down continued Saturday against Alabama because of LSU’s 0-of-4 success rate. That meant four turnovers on downs, which helped tip the balance in a 31-13 loss in Tiger Stadium.
“They were very different ones, I feel like, that came up,” Kiffin said, “and I think most of them, outside of maybe the field goal one, the fourth-and-(4), I think most of them are pretty obvious ‘Go for it’ (calls).”
The one Kiffin considered open for scrutiny was his choice to not kick a field goal trailing 10-3 in the second quarter, trying to continue driving toward the end zone with the ball on the Alabama 9 and 3:36 remaining on the first-half clock.
On that one, Alabama brought six rushers and quarterback Sam Leavitt had tight end Trey’Dez Green coming open on an out route just past the sticks. But the ball was tipped.
“I kind of felt at the start of the game, both teams moving the ball, when they got the field goal, it kind of felt down there like it was probably going to be more high-scoring,” Kiffin said, referring to Alabama’s opening, 50-yard possession. “It’s just because the feeling of it right there, that we were going to need some touchdowns.”
As far as field position, there was no harm done on that one.
Alabama had to take over on its own 9, the Crimson Tide were stuffed on a third-and-1 run and LSU got the ball back again. Leavitt just threw an interception on the ensuing possession.
The bulk of LSU’s fourth-down issues came in the fourth quarter, failing to convert on three tries. That’s a stunning statistic because the Tigers had only failed on three fourth-down conversions in eight games, converting 13-of-16 opportunities.
The first fourth-quarter failure Saturday came with the Tigers down 17-13, sitting at the Alabama 36, needing three yards. If Kiffin opted for the field goal, it would have been a 53-yard attempt, and Scott Starzyk hasn’t hit from longer than 49 this year.
If LSU found enough on fourth-and-3, that would have offered an opportunity to march toward the end zone to retake the lead.
Leavitt appeared to have Jackson Harris coming open on an in-breaking route, with Green pulling open a window with a shallower in-breaking route of his own. But, again, Leavitt’s pass was tipped by an Alabama blitzer.
“Not getting fourth down is pretty brutal,” Leavitt said. “Not just from a points standpoint, but from a momentum point of the game.”
The LSU defense saved the offense in this case, forcing a three-and-out. But Alabama’s punt pushed Leavitt and Co. back to its own 7.
The Tigers ended up punting from their own 11 — and another breakdown in punt coverage, reminiscent of the loss at Kentucky, gave Alabama the ball at the LSU 25.
Keelon Russell threw a touchdown on the very next play. Suddenly, it was 24-13, Alabama, and the Tigers quickly found themselves in another fourth-down situation.
Leavitt was sacked on the first play of the ensuing drive, meaning the 8 yards he gained on the next two plays only made it fourth-and-10 on the LSU 25. Kiffin felt like he had no choice but to go for it with 8:05 remaining.
He isn’t convinced the Tigers would have had enough time to cut into a two-possession deficit if he gave the ball back to Alabama.
“You can play just to try to keep the score low, whatever, when you’re on your own 20, but you have no chance to win by punting, really, analytically,” Kiffin said. “So you go for it.”
Leavitt scanned to his right, pumped, and then looked to his left. At that point, Alabama defensive lineman Devan Thompkins had pushed Jordan Seaton into Leavitt’s lap.
As Thompkins clawed at Leavitt, the Tigers’ quarterback fell backward onto the turf.
In three plays, the Crimson Tide covered 18 yards and suddenly led 31-13.
Fourth-down failures contributed to an odd box score. LSU outgained Alabama 457-285 and finished with a 27-13 advantage in first downs but lost by 18 points.
Not ideal. But not the worst outcome in Kiffin’s view.
“You see games where the offense can’t move the ball at all and we’re up here with maybe that many points but you got 180 yards … then you’re saying, well, we got a ton of problems,” Kiffin said. “So in a way, that’s better because it means we got to do better in the red zone. And when those critical fourth-downs come, we need to make them.”
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