Things have unraveled since. New Orleans is 1-4 since that Ravens win, and its lone victory in that five-game stretch left more questions than answers after the Saints nearly blew a 24-point lead in the final nine minutes against the New York Giants.
The Saints are getting the strong play they hoped to get out of quarterback Tyler Shough, and their other star players are living up to their billing. But the rest of the team has left plenty to be desired.
Here are eight numbers that have told the story up to this point.
34.3
Shough has been one of the few bright spots, but there is one area in particular that he’s struggled: On pass attempts that travel 20 or more yards downfield, he’s completed just 7 of 25 attempts (28%) for 243 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions. That adds up to a 34.3 passer rating, about 40 points lower than his passer rating on such passes a year ago.
Those are difficult passes that are generally hard to complete. The most accurate deep ball passer in the NFL this season (minimum 10 attempts) has been Jets quarterback Geno Smith, who is completing 58.8% of his throws of 20 or more yards. The most concerning thing is that Shough has missed opportunities with some errant throws when receivers were open downfield.
He’s remained an excellent passer on intermediate attempts (10-19 air yards), where his 126.3 passer rating ranks fourth among qualified NFL passers. If he can improve his deep ball efficiency, the offense could find another gear.
32.7%
The Saints have accumulated 171 rushing attempts through the first seven games this season. Nearly a third of those attempts (56 of 171, or 32.7%) have been snuffed out for a gain of 1 or fewer yards — a figure that does not take into account a pair of 1-yard touchdown runs.
Kendre Miller has been one of the least explosive backs in football this season, generating just 2.8 yards per carry. Of his 57 rushing attempts, 20 (35.1%) have gone for 1 yard or fewer, and nine (15.8%) have lost yardage.
Getting Travis Etienne back in the mix should help, but this problem is too big to rely on one player as the solution.
54.5%
New Orleans has faced a third-and-7 or longer on 54.5% (54 of 99) of its third-down attempts. Only six teams have faced more situations where they needed 7 or more yards to convert third downs.
While New Orleans has been effective converting those plays — it has converted 9 of 20 third downs between 7 and 9 yards — consistently being in third-and-long is not a healthy place for an offense to operate. That is especially true since the Saints have issues protecting Shough.
2.55 seconds
According to NexGenStats, Shough has been pressured on 106 of his 288 drop-backs. While the overall 35.8% pressure rate isn’t bad compared to the rest of the NFL — it’s right in the middle of the pack — the problem has been with quick pressure.
On average, opposing defenses are generating pressure within 2.55 seconds of the snap. That is the seventh-fastest time to pressure allowed in the NFL.
+55.2
New Orleans certainly wanted to have rookie receiver Jordyn Tyson on the field by this point, but Chris Olave and Devaughn Vele have formed one of the better 1-2 wide receiver punches in the NFL in his absence.
Olave ranks among the NFL leaders in receptions and receiving yards, and he is on pace to shatter the career-best numbers he posted last season. Vele has served as an ideal complement to Olave’s slashing style, giving the Saints a big-bodied possession receiver whom they can lean on to move the chains and make plays in the low red zone.
Olave and Vele have combined to post +55.2 Expected Points Added, more than the combined total for Bengals stars Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins (+54.2).
48
Defensively, the Saints have allowed exactly 24 explosive plays in both the pass and run games, with explosive plays being defined as passes that gain 20 or more yards and runs that gain 10 or more yards.
Only four teams have allowed more explosive runs than the Saints through seven weeks, and only three have allowed more explosive pass plays. Put it all together, and the Saints are allowing more explosive plays than any other NFL franchise.
This has been one of the more disappointing aspects of the defensive performance this season, because it was one of its strengths a year ago. If the Saints maintain their current pace, they will allow 116 explosive plays. Last season, that number was 96.
7
Chase Young entered the bye week with seven sacks, half a sack behind Houston star Will Anderson’s league-leading total. Young became the 13th player in Saints history to record seven sacks through the team’s first seven games.
2-0, 0-5
Sometimes the simplest stats offer the easiest explanations.
When the Saints have won the turnover battle, they are 2-0. Those takeaways were crucial in both of those wins, as the Saints won by one possession each time.
When the Saints have lost the turnover battle, they are 0-5.
Again, turnovers have loomed large in those games. New Orleans blew an 11-point lead against Las Vegas by turning it over on four straight fourth-quarter possessions; it turned it over inside the Steelers 5-yard line last week in a game it lost by six; it had a minus-2 turnover margin against Detroit in a game it lost by one in overtime; it turned it over deep in its own territory against the Vikings and Falcons when the games were still close.
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